上周回顾
- 主要参考一周收盘简报即可。
- 公司新闻方面，NVDA及AMD的高端芯片受到出口限制。STX发布盈利预警。HPQ财报PC及打印机业务不及预期，下调盈利预期。软件股方面MDB及OKTA、CRWD、VEEV财报发布后均重挫。
本周财经日历及财报日历
- 后续关键日期为9月13日CPI，9月20日-21日FOMC会议。
债市、汇市
- US10Y：自8月10日CPI数据公布后，US10Y收下引线，之后几乎是一路上行的态势；8月19日站上2.9%区域，代表风险偏好的比特币、以太坊、HYG等自19日起均已破位，且ES及NQ跌破上升wedge；26日周五鲍威尔发言后ES及NQ均破位；31日US10Y站上3.1%区域。市场继续risk off模式。
- DXY：8月10日CPI数据公布后美元指数跌破趋势线及MA50，但3天内收回，可视为bear trap，后续反弹非常强劲，亦是risk off信号。上周DXY已冲破前高109区域。
大盘及板块
- 在考虑US10Y和DXY走势后，分析再多其实没意义了，市场维持risk off模式。
- 上周五，我们原本预期：根据CFTC报告，大型投机者（基金或银行）看空情绪越来越高。他们在ES期货上的净头寸为空头25万份合约，是大约两年来最大的净空头头寸。历史统计来看，方向基本准确。但最新AAII看熊指标又大于50了，昨日ES回撤的3900是周线级别支撑，负gamma环境下，空头如果平仓会加速反弹，估计最高可反弹4100区域。
- 但显然周五的走势有点弱，需继续关注ES在3900区域的支撑。
市场情绪、资金流动
Outflows pick up, sentiment heads lower:
- Global equities saw fourth largest weekly outflow of 2022 in week-ended 31-Aug according to latest Flow Show report from BofA (Reuters). Added that the $6.1B that left US equities was the largest in ten weeks. Also pointed out that inflows to risky credit (HY and EM) have stalled. While firm's Bull & Bear Indicator increased for first time since late April and rose above 0 for first time since mid-June, other sentiment indicators deteriorated. Bulls in the latest AAII survey fell to 21.9% from 27.7% in the prior week, marking an eight-week low and the 41st consecutive week below the 38.0% historical average. In addition, bears jumped to 50.4% from 42.4%, marking an eight-week high and the 40th time in the last 41 weeks above the historical average of 30.5%. Bull-bear spread at a very depressed -28.5%, matching its second-longest streak (22 weeks) of negative readings.
大宗商品
- 原油CL突破趋势线后重新跌破90较为负面，关注前低85区域支撑力度。
- 能源相关类标的维持看多思路：能源板块、煤炭、铀矿、农业化肥、太阳能等。不过若大盘快速下挫，也不宜激进做多。
- 黄金GC连续抛售，形态较为弱势。铜等工业金属重新破位。
